Why the Next Manager to Leave is such a Complicated Market to Bet On?

A popular bet is trying to win some money on who the next football manager will be to leave their club. Take note of the title of this bet because failure to do so could cost you money. It’s not simply a case of choosing a manager whose team is in poor form. As will be explained later in this article, it could be the exact opposite.

This is a bet that needs a lot of thought put into it before a wager is made. It’s a fascinating market that will have you constantly checking the news. Is today the day your chosen manager is going to leave his club and win you some cash? Or will someone else bit the dust and cost you your stake?

It’s Not the Sack Race

It’s the actual wording that is the key here. It’s not the sack race as many people call it. This bet is about the next manager to leave their club. It doesn’t need the chairman to call his manager into his office to tell him he’s being sacked. Managers can leave because of personal reasons, arguments with the chairman over how the club is being run or being head-hunted by another club. There really is a lot to consider before you place your bet on this market.

When the Head-Hunter Comes Calling

A manager who sees his team win match after match surely can’t be considered for this bet can he? Well, actually he can because a successful manager is also a wanted one when other teams have vacancies. Bringing in a manager who is proving week after week that he is at the top of his game is ideal for a club that is looking for someone to turn their season around.

Top clubs such as Barcelona and Real Madrid often change their manager. They are clubs that are used to success and if they aren’t challenging for titles, then something has to be done. That usually means a change of management.

Barcelona haven’t made the best of starts to the 2019/20 and Real Madrid have had their fair share of disappointments. If the situation doesn’t improve then. If that is the case, then a replacement may be sought and they could well look in the direction of England for their saviour.

A look at the next Barcelona manager market includes Tottenham’s Mauricio Pochettino, Pep Guardiola (Manchester City) and Wolves boss Nuno Espirito Santo. All are available at double figure odds in the next Premier League manager to leave with Pochettino 17.0 at SkyBet. But if Barcelona came calling, would that request be turned down? Steve Bruce didn’t when the Newcastle job came up. That was despite having been at Sheffield Wednesday for just a few months.

The same applies to international teams and with Euro 2020 groups reaching a conclusion soon, unsuccessful countries might be sacking their bosses if failing to qualify for the finals. So, when considering this bet, consider successful managers as well as the ones who are leading their club towards disaster.

Outright Odds for Next Manager to leave - Premier League 2019-2020

The Power of the Owner

Club owners can play a big part in this bet. They don’t always get on with their manager or just steer their club in a direction that causes backroom problems. Then there’s the owners who don’t understand the word ‘patience’ and sack managers as soon as a few bad results come along. Let’s look in more depth about how a club owner can influence this betting market.

Takeover on the Way?

Unrest at a club is another problem that can cause a manager to leave when least expected. If there are rumours of a takeover this can cause a great deal of stress for the current manager of the club. Is he going to be part of the new owners plans or have they got their own candidate just waiting to take over? If this is the case, the present manager could easily decide to resign before he’s pushed out of the club.

When They Just Don’t Get On

Then there’s the possibility of arguments between the manager and the chairman. Managers can’t stand owners interfering with their work. Paul Scholes took over as manager of Oldham Athletic last season and lasted just 31 days, claiming there had been interference in team affairs by the club’s owner.

Beware theTrigger Happy Chairmen

Loyalty isn’t the best quality of some club owners.  Trigger-happy owners lack patience and the first sign of any problems, they decide to sack their manager. Clubs such as Leeds United and Nottingham Forest in the Championship are renowned for behaving in this manner. Not since the reign of Billy Davies between 2009 and 2011, have they had a manager who’s been in charge for more than 60 games.

Watford continually change their manager and in recent years it’s been an achievement to celebrate a year in charge of the club.   Quique Sanchez Flores has only just taken over at the club and is in his second spell as manager. A few more performances like that at Manchester City when losing 8-0 may well make his time as boss a short one indeed. It’s a good idea therefore to look at such clubs and consider their manager for this bet, especially if they have lost one or two games lately.

Transfer Turmoil

Transfer policies can easily cause unrest and provoke resignations. A manager who feels he doesn’t get the financial support he wants can walk out of the club. Then again, the manager might not even get as far as the transfer window.

If a chairman believes that the upcoming transfer window has to be one where a lot of changes to club personnel has to be made, they may decide to get rid of their manager. If they have doubts about his ability, get rid of them now may be the decision rather than him make substandard signings.

Sometimes Football isn’t that Important

Personal problems can lead to managerial changes. It could be that a manager is ill or just feels that they need a break from the game. Then again, it may be the case that there are family problems that become far more important than running a football club.

Paul Gascoigne took over as manager of non-league Kettering Town. He had big plans of taking them into the Football League but 39 days later he was sacked amid allegations of his drinking problems affecting his work.

This is an awkward part of this bet because such situations are often kept close to the chest and a decision to quit can happen without there being any knowledge of such problems.

Ambitious Managers

Some managers are ambitious and want to further their careers. That was the case with Graham Potter during the summer. He had a good season with Swansea City last season but when the chance came to manage Premier League Brighton and Hove Albion, he couldn’t miss out on that opportunity and headed to the south coast.

What if No One Leaves?

If it’s early in the season then the chances of there being no manager leave their club by season end is unlikely. It’s currently 51.0 at SkyBet. However, as the season progresses and we reach the latter stages, then no further managers leaving their club is an option to pursue.

However, clubs may be unhappy with their manager but prepared to let them see out the rest of the season and then sack him. That’s what happened at Brighton last season. Just a day after their final match of the season, Chris Hughton lost his job. Anyone who had a bet on him to be the next manager to leave would not have been impressed as it was past the deadline set by the bookies.

Who to Back?

Marco Silva is the current 2.61 favourite at SkyBet to be the next Premier League manager to leave his club. Everton are 14th in the table, have a poor away record and just lost 2-0 at home to Sheffield United.

The summer saw massive investment and although it’s tight in the Premier League he could be in trouble. They have Manchester City at home next weekend and another home loss will cause unrest to rise. Everton may well decide that the man they were desperate to appoint might not be the one to take them forward .

Ole Gunnar Solksjaer is only 7.0 at SkyBet to be the next manager to leave his club. After a good start at Manchester United, his side has won just four of their last 15 league games. With games against Arsenal, Newcastle and Liverpool on the horizon, more losses might just lead United to admit they made a mistake appointing him so quickly.

It’s not been the best start to the season for Tottenham. Mauricio Pochettino hasn’t looked a happy bunny and a Carabao Cup loss to Colchester United won’t have helped. He’s down to 9.0 at SkyBet after that defeat and the situation at Tottenham is one to keep a close eye on, especially if they failed to get out of their Champions League group.

Conclusion

As you can see, there’s a lot more to this bet than meets the eye. There are many reasons why a manager may leave his club and not all are down to poor results. You can get some good odds in this market if you do some research. Look at how clubs are behaving and particularly the way in which their owners treat their staff.

Take a look at how long managers stay at clubs, some get restless feet after a while and don’t like staying at clubs for years and years. That desire for a fresh challenge every now and then can lead to resignations and moving to other clubs. Keep an eye on the press and the internet for all the rumours that are circulating.  

Sometimes the gossip might be right and it’s important to keep an eye on the market to see if there are any big movers that might just point in the direction of the next manager to leave their club.

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Published
3 months ago
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Soccer
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