NBA Odds 2018-2019 Season (outright betting odds)

INTRO

Last year’s NBA odds were juicy and our outright betting was very profitable mainly because the Toronto Raptors did what we expected from them and won their division as we placed our bet at 7.

Toronto Raptors 2018 Outright Bet

Toronto Raptors 2018 Outright Bet

So, once again, thanks Raptors!

Toronto Raptors Logo

I think that was a clear mistake by the bookmakers, but when it comes to this season, I can’t really see any odds that are as attractive! So let’s have a look at all the outright betting options for the NBA 2018/2019 Season.

NBA ODDS ANALYSIS INDEX

Division Winners

Eastern Conference – Atlantic Division

NBA Odds 2018/2019 - Atlantic Division Winner

NBA Odds 2018/2019 – Atlantic Division Winner (snai.it)

Team analysis

First of all, let me say something: I don’t have a clear opinion on this conference. I know that the Nets are very weak and the Knicks are just better than them, but the other three team will fight till the end for the division title. Since I have to pick one, I would say that my favorite are the 76ers, followed but the Boston Celtics and Toronto 3rd.
Toronto changed a lot: the head coach, the main star and as a result, I expect them to be a little less competitive in the regular season and maybe better int he playoffs (which they will reach).
The Boston Celtics are strong, very strong! They will welcome back Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, which means that their offense will be much better than what we saw last year. God knows what the limit is for Tatum and they can always count on their strong defense and one of the best coaches in the NBA. I still see them as a playoff them more than a regular season team and I do not expect the same quick start that they had last year.
Similarly, the Philadelphia 76ers are one of the top teams in the league. It does not surprise me to see them priced at 3.75 (compared to last season’s 9.50) to win the Atlantic Division. I actually think that they could be the fastest at the beginning of the regular season as they were very good at the end of last season and should resume from there.
The cool thing is that tonight is the opening night and the first match of the season is Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics, so we will know a little more about this division right after the first game!

Expected Final Standings

Philadelphia 76ers, Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors, New York Knicks, New Jersey Nets.

Eastern Conference – Central Division

NBA Odds 2018 - Central Division Winner

NBA Odds 2018 – Central Division Winner (snai.it)

Team analysis

There will be battle here. Chicago and Cleveland look weak, I agree with the high odds there. It will be interesting to see what Cleveland does after last season’s 50-32 record and with Lebron James in Los Angeles now. I think that they will have a very very poor season as it will take time to recover from such a big loss and adapt to a new way of play, without the best player in the league right now.
We don’t think the Detroit Pistons will be a real contender; I expect them to finish 7/10 games behind the division winners. They can be a dangerous team, but I’m not too confident about how consistent they can be throughout the regular season.
We think that this division will be a 2-team affair and I agree with the bookmakers on the fact that Milwaukee has a slight margin over Indiana. Milwaukee can count on Antetokounmpo, one of the best players in the league but Indiana is a team that never gives up. No matter the players they always find a way to be competitive.

Expected Final Standings

Milwaukee Bucks, Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers.

Eastern Conference – Southeast Division

NBA Odds 2018 - Southeast Division Winner

NBA Odds 2018 – Southeast Division Winner (snai.it)

Team analysis

Similarly to the previous division and as odds suggest, the Southeast Division should be a battle for two. The Washington Wizards and the Miami Heat look definitely stronger than the rest of the group.
The Wizards may have better players than the Heat, but they were far from playing a good basketball last season, while Miami was much better than expected and won the division. The odds here leave little to imagination! I do not have a clear idea on the winner, but Miami’s odds are higher and, as I expect a close battle, I would pick them over Washington.
The rest of the division seems weak. Atlanta was awful last year and they should have a similar season this year. The Orland Magic were almost as better as the Hawks and they did not really improve that much. Charlotte should finish third here.

Expected Final Standings

Miami Heat, Washington Wizards, Charlotte Hornets, Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks.

Western Conference – Northwest Division

NBA Odds 2018 - Northwest Division Winner

NBA Odds 2018 – Northwest Division Winner (snai.it)

Team analysis

This is the most balanced of the division and I think it is where the discussion should focus. The bookmakers set the Thunder as favorite and I disagree. Not only, They set Portland as the underdog and I strongly disagree!
The reality is that a lot can happen here, but my idea is that the Utah Jazz are the best team in this group. Their defense is really strong and Mitchell can score a lot. Plus, they are well coached and they have shown that they can go the distance. They are my pick to win the Northwest division.
The biggest danger for the Utah Jazz are the Trail Blazers (in my opinion). With current odds of 7, they could really be a nice surprise: they won the division last year and will be competitive this year too.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are a good team but by no means they deserve to be favorite. They are the kind of team that can beat anyone on a specific night, but all their ups and downs will drag them down this year again.
The Denver Nuggets and the Minnesota Timberwolves should be there fighting for a playoff spot till the end of the regular season. I see them slightly weaker than Utah and Portland, but honestly, this division is open to pretty much anything.

Expected Final Standings

Utah Jazz, Portland Trail Blazers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets.

Western Conference – Pacific Division

NBA Odds 2018 - Pacific Division Winner

NBA Odds 2018 – Pacific Division Winner (snai.it)

Team analysis

Well, not much to say here.
The Golden State warriors will win the division as their basketball is close to perfection and they added Cousins to their roster.
The Los Angeles Lakers will finish second if not third. This is because it will take time to Lebron and his new teammates to find a good harmony and get ready in time for the playoffs. Last year the Lakers’ record was 35-47. Pretty pathetic for the West Conference and it will be interesting to see how much better they have become with the acquisition of Lebron James.
The Los Angeles Clippers are an average team; they will try to gain a playoff spot but it won’t be an easy task for them, the West is very competitive.
Phoenix and Sacramento are awful, they will something like 35 wins behind the winners.

Expected Final Standings

Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, Sacramento Kings, Phoenix Suns.

Western Conference – Southwest Division

NBA Odds 2018 - Southwest Division Winner

NBA Odds 2018 – Southwest Division Winner (snai.it)

Team analysis

It will be Houston Rockets’ business here! I don’t expect another season like the last one from them and I actually think they are weaker now. I can’t see how Carmelo Anthony can make this team better (and they had to sacrifice players to get him, eg Ariza). Anthony is extremely weak on the defensive end and this will force the Rockets to find different solution to protect him. They are in the same situation with James Harden, so this might be more complicated than it looks like.
San Antonio will most likely make it to the playoffs, but they will really have to fight for team. They acquired DeRozan and lost Leonard. Plus, they finished almost 20 games behind the Rockets last season, so I do not expect them to be competitive for the division title.
I see the Pelicans very close to San Antonio if not above at the end of the regular season.
Dallas and Memphis are rebuilding, with Dallas the better team.

Expected Final Standings

Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs, New Orleans Pelicans, Dallas Mavericks, Memphis Grizzlies.

Under and Over Wins (regular season)

  • Atlanta Hawks: under 24.5 @ 1.60
  • Boston Celtics: under 57.5 @ 2.10
  • Brooklyn Nets: under 31.5 @ 1.95
  • Charlotte Hornets: over 35.5 @ 1.85
  • Chicago Bulls: over 28.5 @ 1.65
  • Cleveland Cavaliers: under 30.5 @ 1.85
  • Dallas Mavericks: over 34.5 @ 1.95
  • Denver Nuggets: under 46.5 @ 2.10
  • Detroit Pistons: over 38.5 @ 1.85
  • Golden State Warriors: under 63.5 @ 1.65
  • Houston Rockets: over 55.5 @ 1.75
  • Indiana Pacers: under 46.5 @ 1.75
  • Los Angeles Clippers: over 35.5 @ 1.60
  • Los Angeles Lakers: over 48.5 @ 1.85
  • Memphis Grizzlies: under 33.5 @ 1.90
  • Miami Heat: over 41.5 @ 1.75
  • Milwaukee Bucks: over 46.5 @ 1.70
  • Minnesota Timberwolves: under 44.5 @ 1.65
  • New Orleans Pelicans: over 44.5 @ 1.85
  • New York Knicks: over 29.5 @ 1.95
  • Oklahoma City Thunder: under 49.5 @ 1.80
  • Orlando Magic: under 30.5 @ 1.95
  • Philadelphia 76ers: over 53.5 @ 1.90
  • Phoenix Suns: under 29.5 @ 1.75
  • Portland Trailblazers: over 42.5 @ 1.85
  • Sacramento Kings: under 26.5 @ 1.80
  • San Antonio Spurs: over 44.5 @ 1.90
  • Toronto Raptors: under 54.5 @ 2.30
  • Utah Jazz: over 49,5 @ 1.85
  • Washington Wizards: over 44.5 @ 1.75

Just a quick note: I think this market is very difficult and I will most likely bet on it just for fun. Most of the lines are very accurate!

Teams Head to Head (regular season)

NBA Odds 2018 - Teams Head to Head

NBA Odds 2018 – Teams Head to Head (snai.it)

Here are my picks for these matchups, divided by how confident I am:

Good Confidence: Sacramento, Houston, Lakers, Milwaukee, San Antonio, Philadelphia, Utah Jazz.

Low Confidence: Dallas, Knicks, Indiana, Orlando, Portland.

Head to Head points (average points per game)

NBA Odds 2018 - Player Points matchups

NBA Odds 2018 – Player Points matchups

This is a difficult market. These are the few ones that I like from snai.it‘s NBA odds offer:

  • DeRozan – Butler: DeRozan @ 1.75
  • Jokic – Dragic: Jokic @ 1.50
  • Oladipo – Walker: Walker K. @ 1.73
  • Wiggins – Redick: Wiggins @ 1.70

Team’s Best Scorer (average points per game)

This is another player props market, and another difficult one, but some of this nba odds are juicy. So, I thought it would be nice to list the ones that I like.
Here are the selections that I like:

  • DeRozan for the San Antonio Spurs @ 1.80
  • Kyle Lowry for the Toronto Raptors @ 3.50
  • Nikola Jokic for the Denver Nuggets @ 2.50
  • Kyrie Irving for the Boston Celtics @ 1.85
  • Luka Doncic for the Dallas Mavericks @ 10.00

Other Odds and Wrap-up

I am not a big fan of markets such as Conference Winner, Regular Season MVP and Rookie of the Year, but I still like some NBA odds that belong to these markets…
I like Doncic to win Rookie of the year @3.25. This is because Luka Doncic is everything but a rookie! He is experience and has played at top European level for a while now. He is worth a shot.
We will discuss conference winners at a later time; for now, the only odds that I like are Philadelphia 76ers’ (4.50 to win the East).
Regular Season MVP: no clue. Lebron will have a lot of work to do to balance the team (at least at the beginning). I expect the Rockets to be worse than last season’s. Antentokounmpo’s price (6.00) is not attractive, so…
What about an outsider like Joel Embiid or Kyrie Irving? Both priced at 20.00.

That’s a wrap for the NBA odds for the 2018 season, let me know if you guys agree or not in the comments below. Time for me to go and place my outright bets!
Head on to www.betzcenter.com for daily picks and stats!

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1 month ago
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